The ship and her successors will also have a new phased-array radar (SPY-3), a greater degree of automation (which may be made possible by internal electric sensors and controls), and a degree of stealth. Clearly it is impossible to make a 100,000-ton ship disappear. However, if the ship’s radar signature can be changed, she may be made to resemble either another large ship (say a bulk carrier) or she may be made to look more like her escorts (and signature control on those ships may bring them up to the carrier’s signature). Signature control of this type would enormously complicate any attempt to target the carrier within a formation, for example, in support of long-range missile attack (by bombers or by the new Chinese ballistic missiles).

 

United Kingdom

In the United Kingdom, work continues on the two Queen Elizabeth-class carriers. Both had been designed to operate the short takeoff/vertical landing (STOVL) version of the U.S. F-35, using ski jumps. However, the plans reportedly made provision for the alternative of catapults and arresting gear – “cats and traps.” The British Conservative government reviewed the program and decided that it would cut its costs by withdrawing from the expensive STOVL program, completing the second ship with cats and traps, and leaving the first ship with a ski-jump bow – and without any fixed-wing aircraft. The force of Harrier STOVLs, which might have operated from the ships upon completion, was disbanded and sold off (to the U.S. Marine Corps). The government then discovered, thanks to operations in Libya, that it had not been so good an idea to disband its carrier air arm – land-based aircraft were hardly the same thing.

 

Now the government reversed itself. It claimed that the cost of the cat and trap version of the carrier had been badly underestimated; it would be less expensive, on the whole, to stay with STOVL aircraft. The advantage was that they would have an operational carrier about two years earlier. The great disadvantage was that, having happily disposed of the Harriers, they would have nothing at all until the STOVL F-35s became available – which might not be nearly as soon as imagined. In effect, however, the British about-face saved the STOVL F-35 (at least for now), something for which its main user, the U.S. Marine Corps, must be very grateful.

France did increase its military budget slightly, but it cut its own FREMM program from 17 to 11 ships in 2011, the army being given priority. The situation was dramatized at the Euronaval show in October 2012, when there were no major announcements of new construction contracts. The main current French export deals are the Mistral-class helicopter carrier for Russia (with more to be built in Russia) and the FREMM-class frigate for Morocco.

Other navies, which have built small carriers that cannot operate anything except STOVL aircraft, are probably even more grateful – no other STOVL attack aircraft is either in production or anywhere near it. The main navies currently involved are those of Italy and Spain, although it is quite possible that Japan and Australia will later feel similar relief. Japan has two 13,000-ton helicopter carriers (designated as helicopter destroyers), and plans to build a 19,000-ton follow-on, which would be a natural STOVL ship. Australia is building two large amphibious ships very similar to the Spanish “projection ship” – a dual-purpose STOVL carrier and large amphibious ship. Neither the Japanese nor the Australians currently plan to buy naval STOVL aircraft.

 

Europe

European navies continue to suffer from the economic disaster. For example, this year the Spanish found themselves laying up their carrier, plus frigates and submarines. It seems unlikely that Greek plans for a FREMM frigate (the Franco-Italian Aquitaine class) and for more Type 214 submarines will materialize, and Portugal has again slowed its only naval program, for offshore patrol vessels.

Italy cut plans for FREMM (Bergamini class) frigates from 10 to seven under a 28 percent defense cut. It also announced mass decommissioning of existing ships: a 2012 list of ships to be placed out of service by 2016 included three submarines, eight frigates, eight corvettes, and three minehunters. France did increase its military budget slightly, but it cut its own FREMM program from 17 to 11 ships in 2011, the army being given priority. The situation was dramatized at the Euronaval show in October 2012, when there were no major announcements of new construction contracts. The main current French export deals are the Mistral-class helicopter carrier for Russia (with more to be built in Russia) and the FREMM-class frigate for Morocco.

The Israeli navy has concentrated on buying German-built Dolphin-class submarines, which are now being presented as a deterrent to the Iranians, possibly armed with cruise missiles (a third submarine of the current [second] series was ordered this year). The first of the series, Tannin, was delivered in May. As it is generally believed that Israel has a substantial nuclear arsenal, and as the Iranians would find it impossible to deal with the submarines at sea, the hints of deterrence seem credible. Note, however, that the missile in question has never been identified; the United States, for example, never sold Tomahawk to Israel.

 

Middle East

The two hot areas for naval growth are now, as for some years, the Middle East and the Far East.