The KC-46 is a derivative of the Boeing 767-200 and was selected in February 2011 after years of debate and intense competition with the Airbus A330-200. The tanker is intended to replace the Eisenhower-era KC-135: Some 820 of those were built and 414 were in service on Sept. 30, 2012.

In the meantime, the government estimates that Boeing will spend $400 million of its own money to design the tanker. The tanker contract was written on tough terms that put much of the program risk in the lap of the planemaker. Experts close to the program say it is bouncing back after the Government Accountability Office (GAO) determined in spring 2012 that the KC-46 faces “significant schedule risks” and technical challenges.

The F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter, viewed by some as a likely target if severe budget cuts are enforced, is finally starting to make it in the Air Force. “The F-35 is here, it’s real, and for the Air Force, this jet is our future,” said Lt. Col. Lee Kloos, commander of the 58th Fighter Squadron “Gorillas” at Eglin Air Force Base, Fla., where the first JSF training began at the end of 2012. “I think we’re making progress in the program,” Donley said at a November industry conference. “Still some challenges, but we’re going to make it work.” Donley acknowledged that one of the challenges is the F-35’s unique helmet-mounted cueing system, which is supposed to provide a virtual head-up display (HUD) on a visor in front of the pilot’s face. Unlike most fighters, the F-35 does not have a physical HUD.

In 2010, the Pentagon revealed that delays and cost overruns had resulted in a cost per aircraft that exceeded the original contract by 50 percent. Then-Defense Secretary Robert M. Gates warned Congress of a 13-month production delay  – not the first such delay  –  and of a budget increase of $3 billion. A 2011 Pentagon study cited 13 major problems in the design, development, and testing of the F-35. The fighter’s integrated power package was “unreliable and difficult to service.” Safety concerns surrounded lightning protection, and thermal management and fire hazards in the fuel dump system. The Pentagon also said, in an extraordinary revelation that went almost unnoticed, that the F-35 airframe was unlikely to last through the lifespan of the aircraft. Despite all this piling on, working-level airmen like Kloos  – whose squadron’s parent unit, the 33rd Fighter Wing, will eventually provide training in the Air Force F-35A conventional takeoff and landing (CTOL) aircraft, Marine F-35B short takeoff/vertical landing (STOVL) aircraft, and Navy F-35C carrier-based aircraft  – insist that the F-35 is coming along.

The Air Force has seen its fighter fleet decline by 525 airframes in the past 11 years to a current total of 2,004 (the Navy lost just one fighter during that time, going from 1,179 to 1,178). Although the average age of an Air Force aircraft is 23.5 years, the relative newness of the C-17 Globemaster III airlift fleet skews the numbers. The average Air Force fighter is more than 30 years old, which is why the service clings steadfastly to its long-held belief that it needs 1,763 F-35s to replace many of its A-10C Thunderbolt II and F-16C/D Fighting Falcon fighter-bombers. While many believe the F-35 is compromised as an air-to-air fighter and air-to-ground attack craft precisely because it tries to be both – former Pentagon analyst Pierre Sprey would prefer the Air Force to acquire single-mission aircraft like the A-10  – even the strongest critics of the F-35 acknowledge that the biggest problems in the program may be behind it. The JSF actually has momentum now.

It’s unclear whether that’s true with the service’s on-again, off-again effort to field a new bomber as part of a broader vision called “Long Range Strike” (LRS). Rumors that a bomber developed in a “black program” may actually be flying in secret are probably little more than wishful thinking. The service does have programs that are kept almost entirely out of the public eye, including its RQ-170 Sentinel surveillance drone and the X-37B unmanned orbital vehicle, but it’s unlikely that metal has been cut on a bomber.

Three consecutive chiefs of staff, culminating with Welsh, have pushed for a bomber that would also be an intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) platform, but each has defined the need somewhat differently. Studies performed as far back as 2007 on what was then called the Next Generation Bomber (NGB) will be helpful, but the current view is that a new bomber needs to be straightforward and simple. “We would like a modern-day version of something like the B-52 Stratofortress,” said an officer on Welsh’s staff.

The service is seeking to reinstate its Light Air Support (LAS) program to equip the Afghan air force with a light, nimble attack plane. The Embraer EMB-314 Super Tucano and Hawker Beechcraft AT-6 Texan II are competing for a contract for at least 20 planes, but LAS currently exists in name only after having been temporarily abandoned earlier in the year. It’s no longer likely that LAS aircraft can arrive in Afghanistan before the administration’s planned withdrawal of troops in 2014. With counterinsurgency no longer a priority, it’s unclear whether LAS will now proceed at all.