While the United States is both the largest user and seller of AWACS and AEW&C aircraft, Russia, despite claims of rebuilding its global superpower status, appears to be more interested in expanding its role as a global seller. But far more nations want their own capability than can afford to buy, fly, and maintain those large, complex platforms. And while missions and requirements vary, none need the full capabilities of an E-3 or A-50/50U.

“A lot of nations that had their own C4ISR [command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance] platforms during the Cold War have realized the U.S. still has that and can take care of that need for them. So the U.S. will remain the largest market for manned C4ISR,” Teal Group senior analyst Dave Rockwell said. “Aircraft such as AWACS and P-3C were retasked for Southwest Asia [post-9/11], but now we are going back to a more traditional effort with the pivot to Asia and shift from COIN [counter-insurgency] to a near-peer competitor – although China is not an equivalent to the Soviet Union in the Cold War.

Employing new faster, smaller sensors and other technologies, such a platform could match the capabilities of larger legacy aircraft, and the continuing operating costs are a lot less than for the old four-engine platforms.

“Any of the big, four-engine aircraft can provide C2, and a number of Cold War aircraft will be more important against near-peer opponents where airspace is contested. However, the Air Force wants a less expensive alternative to the four-engine AWACS, looking primarily at a business jet platform coordinated with UAVs [unmmaned aerial vehicles].”

Employing new faster, smaller sensors and other technologies, such a platform could match the capabilities of larger legacy aircraft, and the continuing operating costs are a lot less than for the old four-engine platforms. However, Rockwell also noted some drawbacks, including “the expense of a major program when the Air Force is trying to fund JSF [Joint Strike Fighter] while keeping everything else in the air.”

“A couple of years ago, the Air Force decided they could not afford that and probably has turned more to classified, stealthy, penetrating UAVs, but I don’t think the budget is right for them to start a new multi-billion dollar program. So while a business jet C4ISR, in the long term, is probably a good idea and a ‘nice-to-have,’ it is not a ‘must-have,’ which is why they don’t have a program of record.”

If China does become the third nation to build large, four-engine C4ISR aircraft, it is expected to follow the U.S. pattern – building the most advanced platforms for its own air force and selling slightly less state-of-the-art systems to others.

“The thing to remember with China is they actually have near-peer opponents, so they essentially are looking to develop all the capabilities they have.”

“The thing to remember with China is they actually have near-peer opponents, so they essentially are looking to develop all the capabilities they have,” Rockwell said. “They are still pretty far behind, but are putting up the money to fill those holes. And they are developing a lot of new systems, even though the general consensus is they are well below the U.S. – which also was true with the Soviet Union.

“If they are looking at new [aircraft] carriers, they also would be looking at carrier-borne capabilities. Obviously, not that much is known about those, but with or without the transfer of Russian technology, they will be similar to U.S. systems from some years ago. But they are filling out their suite of full capabilities as a first-tier nation.”

 

Airborne C4ISR Platforms Worldwide

In a December 2012 Frost & Sullivan “Global C4ISR Market Assessment,” senior research manager Aman Pannu forecast a steady growth through 2021, despite major defense budget cuts in the United States and Europe.

“Total C4ISR spending between 2012 and 2021 is expected to be $1.1 trillion, with the spending increasing from $100.23 billion in 2012 to $129.51 billion in 2021,” he wrote. “Over the study period, the ratio of total C4ISR spending to total procurement spending has been predicted to increase from 18.5 percent to 20.0 percent globally, due to an increased push towards a networked force/digital battlefield. There is a trend towards increased investments in C4ISR integration, coupling all military and emergency services at the national level, particularly in Western and emerging countries.

“The U.S. share in total global C4ISR spending is likely to reduce from 44.1 percent in 2012 to 36.5 percent in 2021, due to significant defense cuts until at least 2017 and increased defense spending by BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) and other emerging countries. Global C4ISR market spending will primarily be driven by investments in joint/strategic C2 projects involving the satellite communication/tactical communications backbone, aimed at combining available ISR, air and missile defense, space and EW [electronic warfare] resources across air, land and sea platforms for common operating picture and battle space management.”

For C4ISR airborne platform customers and producers, the requirements and missions that define what goes into their fleets – or their desired fleets – can vary widely by nation and region.

According to ICD Research, the war in Southwest Asia took ISR spending from a minor to a major priority for militaries throughout the world. The analysts predict the largest growth, percentage-wise if not in actual dollars spent, through 2021 will be in South America – specifically Brazil, Chile, Venezuela, and Colombia, where efforts to modernize and gain regional military supremacy have created something of an arms race.